Transportation Market Update: Rates, Capacity & Key Trends for August 2026

Spot market transportation rates remain elevated heading into late August, despite some softening throughout July and early August. While this recent decline may provide temporary relief, several key economic and transportation indicators suggest the trend could be short-lived.

Positive manufacturing momentum, historically strong freight volumes, elevated fuel prices and reduced truckload capacity continue to create an environment where shippers should remain prepared for higher transportation costs and tighter capacity.

Manufacturing Indicators Show Positive Momentum

Several key economic indicators strengthened in July:

• July ISM rose to 55.6%.
• New manufacturing orders increased from 56% to 56.7%, indicating continued demand momentum despite tariff and trade concerns and uncertainty surrounding interest rates.
• Production climbed to 58.5%, increasing 6.3% month over month. This represented the strongest increase since late 2021.

These indicators point toward continued manufacturing activity and freight demand as we move toward the final months of 2026.

Spot Market Rates Remain Historically High

Spot transportation rates declined approximately 2–3% month over month, but rates remain at or near historic levels across dry van, flatbed and refrigerated transportation.

Across these market segments, spot rates are currently up an average of approximately 42% year over year.

Available truckload capacity also continues to be affected by FMCSA enforcement involving non-domiciled CDLs. Reduced capacity, combined with sustained freight demand, has the potential to place additional upward pressure on rates.

Flatbed Contract Rates Approach $4.00 Per Mile

Contract flatbed pricing has increased substantially.

Average flatbed contract rates have risen from approximately $3.00 per mile in March 2025 to nearly $4.00 per mile in August 2026, representing a significant year-over-year increase.

Dry van and refrigerated transportation have experienced similar year-over-year pricing pressure.

In August, flatbed contract rates remain approximately $0.34 per mile higher than flatbed spot market rates.

Diesel Fuel Prices Continue to Impact Transportation Costs

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), national diesel fuel prices remain elevated at approximately $4.454 per gallon, an increase of approximately $0.20 per gallon from the previous week and $1.74 per gallon year over year.

Higher diesel costs directly affect both spot and contract transportation pricing. They can also influence how drivers evaluate available freight.

With fuel prices elevated, carriers may:

• Favor lighter loads when possible to reduce fuel consumption.
• Be less willing to deadhead significant distances to pick up freight.
• Become increasingly selective about destinations.
• Avoid markets with particularly high fuel and operating costs, including California, Illinois/Chicagoland and portions of the East Coast.

These considerations should be factored into transportation planning and quoting.

Freight Volumes Remain Strong

Spot market load volumes have remained relatively flat week over week as the traditional summer slowdown continues. However, overall load activity remains around five-year highs and well above 2025 levels.

Strong freight availability gives drivers and carriers more choices. When capacity is limited, carriers can naturally gravitate toward freight offering stronger rates, favorable destinations and more efficient operating conditions.

Flatbed Market

Flatbed demand remains particularly strong, with areas throughout the Southeast and West into Texas, the Rust Belt and Pacific Northwest reflecting more than 100 loads per posted truck.

This level of demand continues to create significant competition for available flatbed capacity.

Dry Van Market

The dry van market is not experiencing the same level of strength as flatbed, but capacity remains tight in several important regions.

Areas throughout the Rust Belt and much of the Southeast are reflecting more than 100 loads per posted truck, signaling continued competition for available van capacity.

Planning Ahead in a Tight Transportation Market

Despite the modest month-over-month decline in spot pricing, the broader transportation market continues to reflect strong freight demand, elevated fuel costs and reduced available capacity.

Shippers should remain proactive when planning upcoming freight. Providing adequate lead time, maintaining flexibility with pickup and delivery schedules, considering load weight and understanding regional capacity conditions can help improve carrier availability and manage transportation costs.

Medallion Transport & Logistics provides dry van, flatbed, refrigerated, LTL, specialized, expedited and logistics management services throughout North America. Contact our team to discuss upcoming freight requirements and transportation solutions.